My Dirty Little Secret

By Jude T. Feld

This article was written prior to the announcement of the First Kentucky Derby Future Bet Pool selection. Unfortunately, two of our “fuzzies” ended up in the “All Others” group and will offer a short price. Consensus choices, CHOCOLATE CANDY and WEST SIDE BERNIE, both open at 50-1, making them way out of line and possible wagers as well.

Every year at this time, many Thoroughbred scribes and other geniuses of the turf put out their “Kentucky Derby Top 10 List.” Some of these folks even go so far as to put out a “Derby Top 20” so they can possibly brag later on that they were, “the first to have the Derby winner on their list.”

After perusing the web and printed publications for these lists you come to memorize the litany of top contenders – Pioneerof the Nile, Old Fashioned, Vineyard Haven, Midshipman, Westside Bernie, Chocolate Candy, Beethoven, Stardom Bound and Friesan Fire. These are the consensus picks as of this writing and it is certainly possible, maybe even probable, that one of these noble steeds will be wearing the Kroeger-made garland of roses on the first Saturday in May.

The dreaded “Kentucky Derby Future Book” betting starts Thursday, February 12 and rest assured that none of the above listed 10 top three-year-old will be worth a wager, unless of course the silly “anti-Dubai-trained bias” allows Midshipman or Vineyard Haven to be avoided like the plague among American bettors.

Although I don’t advocate future betting, It is my dirty little secret. There is a certain appeal to heading for Churchill Downs on Derby day, with a $20 win ticket in your wallet, on a horse now dancing the dance, that you backed in February, at what seemed then, a ludicrous price.

Great horseplayers speak often about “value.” How much closer to God can you get than to have a ticket on the 4-1 Derby favorite, which is paying off at 50-1? That’s power baby!

Here’s a few Derby hopefuls you might want to consider wagering on if the price is right.

HELLO BROADWAY – Future Pool Morning Line: 50-1

A half-brother to the talented Nobiz Like Shobiz by Pin Oak stallion Broken Vow, Hello Broadway broke his maiden at first-asking at Saratoga last August. Subsequently a troubled fifth behind the freakish Vineyard Haven in the Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park in October, trainer Barclay Tagg thought enough of his charge to enter him in the one-mile Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct in November.

Hello Broadway justified Tagg’s enthusiasm by finishing second to Breakwater Edison and ending his two-year-old campaign on a high note and picking up those important graded earnings.

Returned to the racing wars in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park, Hello Broadway showed uncharacteristic early speed, forcing the pace set by Rocketing Returns, but could not hold off the closing charge of Capt. Candyman Can.

Bred to go much further, Hello Broadway may return in an allowance race at Gulfstream or possibly try the Fountain of Youth (G2) with an eye on the Florida Derby (G1).

PAPA CLEM – Future Pool Morning Line: 20-1

Going from a maiden race to the Robert B. Lewis (G2), Papa Clem was asked to do quite a lot. He responded to the question and nearly pulled off a major upset. Jockey Rafael Bejarano was quite complimentary of the son of Lane’s End stallion Smart Strike after the Lewis.

“He ran really good. He tried hard,” Bejarano said. “I was in perfect position. I had to use my horse a little bit to keep my position from the three-eighths pole to the quarter-pole, and then to the wire. I think that cost me a little bit, because my horse was flying at the end. I had to let him run from the three-eighths. Yes, for sure, I was surprised at how well he ran after coming out of a maiden race. He’s going to be a good horse.”

Trainer Gary Stute blew his colt out in :33 3/5 for the Lewis, so it looks like his biggest task will be to get Papa Clem to relax. Maybe he should take him down to Cabo San Lucas, where his namesake, the late, great Clement L. Hirsch had a seaside retreat.

Papa Clem’s next start is still up in the air.

FLAT OUT – Future Pool Morning Line: 5-2 All Others Selection

Sixth in his Churchill Downs debut at 6 ½ furlongs, Flat Out broke his maiden second-time out when he was shipped to the Fair Grounds. Eighth early, the son of Claiborne stallion Flatter, a son of A.P. Indy, closed with a rush to beat a solid field of 11 other colts and geldings.

Breaking from the outside post in a field of seven entered for the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Flat Out tucked in going around the first turn and remained unhurried going down the backstretch. Asked to run on the turn for home, he responded gamely, passing his competition to win by 3 ½ lengths in a visually impressive performance, especially since it was his first race around two turns.

Reportedly, trainer Charles Dickey is pointing Flat Out for Oaklawn’s Southwest (G3) to be run Monday, February 16, the day after the first Future Pool closes.

PARADE CLOWN – Future Pool Morning Line: 5-2 All Others Selection

He ran down one-dimensional MUSIC CITY to win the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park Saturday. He is bred to go longer (Distorted Humor-El Prado mare) and could improve some more. He should certainly like the turf.

I have a gut feeling that several sharpies will be seeking to purchase him as he is a family-owned horse trained by the owner’s daughter – K.K. Ball. Whether he switches barns or not, he has a lot of things going for him and will be a huge price in the first pool unless he is part of the field.

The Battaglia Memorial Stakes and/or the Lane’s End (G2) at Turfway would be logcal spots for his next start.

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 8th, 2009 at 1:55 pm and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.